I’ve had a fair amount of success over the last couple of months, but haven’t been posting, so you guys have nothing to go on from me. But let me throw this into the mix anyway, what the hell. (Hopefully I won’t go 0-4 and then skunk away.)
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> </o>
Sorry for the hyperbole in the thread title, but I figured if I was gonna write this up, you guys might as well read it!
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Pats -2<o></o>
<o> </o>
A great game. What this game comes down to for me is what KIND of game it will be. The only kind of game I see the Colts winning against the Patriots in Foxboro is a runaway, or at least a comfortable victory. And that's not gonna happen.
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There’s a couple of things that I think are being missed when the first time these teams played this year is brought up. Number one, the Patriot’s rookie nose guard, Vince Wilfork, has improved quite a bit since the first game, which was his first game in the pros. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>’s run defense was simply outstanding as the year progressed. You can essentially throw out the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> game, because Law went down during the game. Anytime changes have to be made on the fly, it can be misleading. In that instance, the secondary needed help, the run defense suffered, it was a mess. (A similar situation occurred in the 4<SUP>th</SUP> quarter of last year’s super bowl, when the Pat's secondary—Harrison, W<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">ilson</st1:City></st1lace>—went down, and Delhomme passed for about 900 yards.) The other issue that hasn’t been mentioned much is that Ty Law wasn’t really Ty Law this year before he went down, for whatever reason. So the dropoff isn’t quite as dramatic as it might appear.
<o> </o>
Now, an injury that really COULD make a big difference is Richard Seymour. If he’s hurt worse than it appears now—and for this reason, I would advise waiting on any play, because if anything I think the number will move down as gametime approaches—then the Patriots will be in trouble, and I could see a Colts romp. But assuming he’s OK, this is a close game, one which the Patriot offense will step up—the Colts D is better than they get credit for, but so is the Pats offense. And the Patriots, at home, will make the play on defense—or Brady will make a play if it comes to that—to pull it out. Stay with the champs until somebody knocks ‘em off, at home at least. Take the Pats.
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Philly -9<o></o>
<o> </o>
This is one of those games that can be overthought. Problem is, because of Owen’s injury, it’s not crazy to do that. He truly had an amazing impact on the Eagles this year—far more than I thought he would, I have to admit. And now he’s out.
<o> </o>
But first off, one thing you have to do is throw out the last games of the year. Andy Reid decided to essentially stop playing his team at the end of the season, to prevent further injuries. You can debate if that’s wise—it’s not the way I would go—but the fact is, once he decided to do that, the results of the games were basically set, so it’s not as though they can be used as evidence of anything.
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<st1:State w:st="on">The fact is, Minnesota</st1:State> is a mediocre team, McNabb won’t throw 4 interceptions, Philly is a MUCH stronger defensive team than <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City></st1lace>, and Andy Reid vs. Mike Tice is a absolute mismatch. This strikes me as one of those games where you can talk yourself into taking the points—“wow, Minnesota looked pretty good against Green Bay, good offense, man, that’s a lot of points, and T.O’s hurt…..” and after the fact you go, “what the hell was I thinking?” (Like taking <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Denver</st1lace></st1:City> last week—I even considered it for a minute until I slapped myself awake). Take Philly, lay the points, and cash in.
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Rams +7<o></o>
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This is more of an anti-Atlanta play than anything else, but it doesn’t hurt that the Rams are playing as well as I’ve seen them play for a long time. They’re playing with a great deal of confidence, and that offense WILL put points on the board.
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Over the course of the season, of course, they have been mediocre, much like the Vikings. And I wouldn’t take the Rams against the Eagles. But the Falcons are not the Eagles. Every time I watched <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> play this year, I was struck by how ordinary they looked. This is a #2 seed in a conference that was almost outscored for the year. That’s hard to believe. It all comes down to Vick, who is a special talent for sure. But the playoffs are a completely different game than the regular season, everything is heightened, and his improvs that worked so well over the course of the season will likely misfire here. I see the beginning of this game as key; if the Rams get up 7-10 points, it’ll be an easy cover. But even if they don’t, look for them to hang around, and the Falcons to fade in crunch time. I actually like the Rams to win outright.
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Now, the Rams are coached by Mike Martz, and picking a Martz team is always a scary proposition. But where I see Martz hurting the Rams here is in pulling out the win, not the cover. He’ll probably make some boneheaded decision, turning the upset win into a heartbreaking loss. But they’ll still get the cover, and that’s all we care about here. The Rams are the pick.
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<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> -9<o></o>
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The Jets are a tough team to figure out. They can look very tough, with an aggressive D, strong offensive line, and impressive skill players. But at the end of the day, they’re inconsistent, and coming off a strong showing against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City></st1lace>, their bubble is ready to burst.
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I know some people are pointing to the Jets fairly spirited loss to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> in the regular season, but I think that game even more strongly favors the Steelers. The Steelers were coming off an emotional Sunday night road victory against Jacksonville, the Jets were sky-high and primed to show they could win a game against an elite team, and they lost by 11. I see the Steelers controlling both lines of scrimmage, forcing Pennington to make plays. Now, I actually like Pennington, but his arm is clearly not right, and he’s not going to pull off two road playoff victories in a row. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> will get on top, and while I think it’ll be fairly close at halftime, they’ll take control in the second half, Pennington will be forced to throw, and then it could get ugly.
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Pittsburgh has great depth (whipping Buffalo with their back-ups was really impressive), they’re rested, they’re at home, and they are a hungry team, thrilled to be as good as they are and ready to show what they’ve got. Put it this way—I don’t see ANY way that the Steelers lose this game. Is it possible that the Jets cover? Hell, anything’s possible, that’s why they call it gambling. Will it happen? I strongly doubt it. Lay the points.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Sorry for the hyperbole in the thread title, but I figured if I was gonna write this up, you guys might as well read it!
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> </o>Pats -2<o
></o><o
> </o>A great game. What this game comes down to for me is what KIND of game it will be. The only kind of game I see the Colts winning against the Patriots in Foxboro is a runaway, or at least a comfortable victory. And that's not gonna happen.
<o
> </o>There’s a couple of things that I think are being missed when the first time these teams played this year is brought up. Number one, the Patriot’s rookie nose guard, Vince Wilfork, has improved quite a bit since the first game, which was his first game in the pros. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>’s run defense was simply outstanding as the year progressed. You can essentially throw out the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> game, because Law went down during the game. Anytime changes have to be made on the fly, it can be misleading. In that instance, the secondary needed help, the run defense suffered, it was a mess. (A similar situation occurred in the 4<SUP>th</SUP> quarter of last year’s super bowl, when the Pat's secondary—Harrison, W<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">ilson</st1:City></st1lace>—went down, and Delhomme passed for about 900 yards.) The other issue that hasn’t been mentioned much is that Ty Law wasn’t really Ty Law this year before he went down, for whatever reason. So the dropoff isn’t quite as dramatic as it might appear.<o
> </o>Now, an injury that really COULD make a big difference is Richard Seymour. If he’s hurt worse than it appears now—and for this reason, I would advise waiting on any play, because if anything I think the number will move down as gametime approaches—then the Patriots will be in trouble, and I could see a Colts romp. But assuming he’s OK, this is a close game, one which the Patriot offense will step up—the Colts D is better than they get credit for, but so is the Pats offense. And the Patriots, at home, will make the play on defense—or Brady will make a play if it comes to that—to pull it out. Stay with the champs until somebody knocks ‘em off, at home at least. Take the Pats.
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> </o><o
> </o>Philly -9<o
></o><o
> </o>This is one of those games that can be overthought. Problem is, because of Owen’s injury, it’s not crazy to do that. He truly had an amazing impact on the Eagles this year—far more than I thought he would, I have to admit. And now he’s out.
<o
> </o>But first off, one thing you have to do is throw out the last games of the year. Andy Reid decided to essentially stop playing his team at the end of the season, to prevent further injuries. You can debate if that’s wise—it’s not the way I would go—but the fact is, once he decided to do that, the results of the games were basically set, so it’s not as though they can be used as evidence of anything.
<o
> </o><st1:State w:st="on">The fact is, Minnesota</st1:State> is a mediocre team, McNabb won’t throw 4 interceptions, Philly is a MUCH stronger defensive team than <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City></st1lace>, and Andy Reid vs. Mike Tice is a absolute mismatch. This strikes me as one of those games where you can talk yourself into taking the points—“wow, Minnesota looked pretty good against Green Bay, good offense, man, that’s a lot of points, and T.O’s hurt…..” and after the fact you go, “what the hell was I thinking?” (Like taking <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Denver</st1lace></st1:City> last week—I even considered it for a minute until I slapped myself awake). Take Philly, lay the points, and cash in.<o
> </o><o
> </o>Rams +7<o
></o><o
> </o>This is more of an anti-Atlanta play than anything else, but it doesn’t hurt that the Rams are playing as well as I’ve seen them play for a long time. They’re playing with a great deal of confidence, and that offense WILL put points on the board.
<o
> </o>Over the course of the season, of course, they have been mediocre, much like the Vikings. And I wouldn’t take the Rams against the Eagles. But the Falcons are not the Eagles. Every time I watched <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> play this year, I was struck by how ordinary they looked. This is a #2 seed in a conference that was almost outscored for the year. That’s hard to believe. It all comes down to Vick, who is a special talent for sure. But the playoffs are a completely different game than the regular season, everything is heightened, and his improvs that worked so well over the course of the season will likely misfire here. I see the beginning of this game as key; if the Rams get up 7-10 points, it’ll be an easy cover. But even if they don’t, look for them to hang around, and the Falcons to fade in crunch time. I actually like the Rams to win outright.<o
> </o>Now, the Rams are coached by Mike Martz, and picking a Martz team is always a scary proposition. But where I see Martz hurting the Rams here is in pulling out the win, not the cover. He’ll probably make some boneheaded decision, turning the upset win into a heartbreaking loss. But they’ll still get the cover, and that’s all we care about here. The Rams are the pick.
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> </o><o
> </o><st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> -9<o></o><o
> </o>The Jets are a tough team to figure out. They can look very tough, with an aggressive D, strong offensive line, and impressive skill players. But at the end of the day, they’re inconsistent, and coming off a strong showing against <st1
lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City></st1lace>, their bubble is ready to burst.<o
> </o>I know some people are pointing to the Jets fairly spirited loss to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> in the regular season, but I think that game even more strongly favors the Steelers. The Steelers were coming off an emotional Sunday night road victory against Jacksonville, the Jets were sky-high and primed to show they could win a game against an elite team, and they lost by 11. I see the Steelers controlling both lines of scrimmage, forcing Pennington to make plays. Now, I actually like Pennington, but his arm is clearly not right, and he’s not going to pull off two road playoff victories in a row. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> will get on top, and while I think it’ll be fairly close at halftime, they’ll take control in the second half, Pennington will be forced to throw, and then it could get ugly.<o
> </o>Pittsburgh has great depth (whipping Buffalo with their back-ups was really impressive), they’re rested, they’re at home, and they are a hungry team, thrilled to be as good as they are and ready to show what they’ve got. Put it this way—I don’t see ANY way that the Steelers lose this game. Is it possible that the Jets cover? Hell, anything’s possible, that’s why they call it gambling. Will it happen? I strongly doubt it. Lay the points.
